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INFORMS 2014, San Francisco

Lumina at INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014

November 9-12, 2014

Stop by our booth

Join Lumina at INFORMS 2014!? November 9-12, 2014
?Hilton San Francisco Union Square & Parc 55 Wyndham?
San Francisco, California

Come meet us in person at the Lumina exhibit, Booth #1A. Get a demo of Analytica or Cubeplan. Let us know if you'd like an Exhibit pass or want to set up a meeting.

We are offering a 20% discount on new Analytica licenses purchased withing 30 days and hour complimentary live web training – How to teach model structuring using influence diagrams for use with Excel and/or Analytica, with student guide.. Just visit us at the INFORMS Exhibit Hall, Booth #1A to receive your offer.

Exhibit Times:?
Sun.,   Nov. 9 12:00pm-5:00pm & 7:30pm-9:00pm?
Mon.,   Nov. 10 9:00am-5:00pm?
Tues.,  Nov. 11 9:00am-5:00pm?
Wed.,   Nov. 12 9:00am-3:00pm

Click here for the INFORMS 2014 Meeting website.

Attend a presentation 

Monday Nov 10, 11:00am - 12:30pm

How to Decommission California’s Offshore Oil Platforms?

Presenters Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems; Brock Bernstein, Ecoanalysis; Surya Swamy, Lumina Decision Systems

The 27 oil platforms off California’s coast are reaching the end of their productive lives. Should they be removed at great cost to the oil companies? Or should they be converted to artificial reefs to preserve their rich marine ecosystems? An interdisciplinary team created a decision analysis tool with Analytica to help the initially conflicted decision makers find a solution satisfying almost everyone.
 


Monday Nov 10, 4:30pm - 6:00pm

How to Recalibrate and Combine Overconfident Experts

Presenter Max Henrion, Lumina Decision Systems

Overconfidence in expert elicitations may be evident from low overlap between probability distributions from different experts. We use this evidence to estimate the degree of overconfidence by expert, and recalibrate them to obtain better calibrated aggregate distributions. We demonstrate the practical value of the method on expert elicitations of the future cost and performance of low-carbon energy technologies.