Analytica User Feedback
We greatly appreciate the many Analytica users who responded to our survey. Here’s a summary of the main results. How …
The Deadly Pillow Fallacy
An exercise in critical thinking Today I start out with a challenge for you. Can you spot the logical errors …
Analytica 6.0 beta
Analytica 6.0 is now available for beta testing! We invite Analytica users with an active subscription to try out 6.0 …
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection
As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be …
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Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked
(Posted on 23 Apr 2020) In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number …
Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked Read More »
Adjusting the Santa Clara County COVID-19 Antibody testing study results for self-selection bias
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, …
The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown?
The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases …
The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown? Read More »
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works
(Posted on 15-Apr-2020) On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington …
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works Read More »
Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
(Posted 23-Mar-2020) Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach Read More »