Analytica 6.0 beta
Analytica 6.0 is now available for beta testing! We invite Analytica users with an active subscription to try out 6.0 …
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection
As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be …
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Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked
(Posted on 23 Apr 2020) In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number …
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Adjusting the Santa Clara County COVID-19 Antibody testing study results for self-selection bias
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, …
The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown?
The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases …
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A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works
(Posted on 15-Apr-2020) On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington …
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Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
(Posted 23-Mar-2020) Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation …
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Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
We all are uncertain about how the future will unfold. This is a primary reason why decision making in business, public policy and our personal lives is so hard. As the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold [W20], we are all confronted numerous new decisions that hinge a lot on how bad this is going to get. And these are hard, because the uncertainty and the stakes are so big.
The mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus
It has only been about a month since the new strain of a coronavirus appeared in the city of Wuhan, …