The Deadly Pillow Fallacy
An exercise in critical thinking Today I start out with a challenge for you. Can you spot the logical errors …
Analytica 6.0 beta
Analytica 6.0 is now available for beta testing! We invite Analytica users with an active subscription to try out 6.0 …
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection
As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be …
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Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked
(Posted on 23 Apr 2020) In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number …
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Adjusting the Santa Clara County COVID-19 Antibody testing study results for self-selection bias
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, …
The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown?
The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases …
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A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works
(Posted on 15-Apr-2020) On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington …
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Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
(Posted 23-Mar-2020) Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation …
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Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020
We all are uncertain about how the future will unfold. This is a primary reason why decision making in business, public policy and our personal lives is so hard. As the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold [W20], we are all confronted numerous new decisions that hinge a lot on how bad this is going to get. And these are hard, because the uncertainty and the stakes are so big.