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The value of knowing how little you know

When to leave for the plane (April 22, 2021)

What time should you leave to catch a plane flight? We all know intuitively to leave extra time for traffic and other uncertainties. But, how much time? And what’s the value of considering uncertainty? Max Henrion gave a talk on April 22, 2021 where he introduced the Expected Value of Including Uncertainty (EVIU), compare with the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI), and the insights it gives into a variety of decision problems — including catching a plane. He’ll share the Analytica model.

Picture of Lonnie Chrisman

Lonnie Chrisman

Lonnie Chrisman is Lumina's Chief Technical Officer, where he heads engineering and development of Analytica. He has a PhD in Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of California at Berkeley.

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Download the free edition of Analytica

The free version of Analytica lets you create and edit models with up to 101 variables, which is pretty substantial since each variable can be a multidimensional array. It also lets you run larger modes in ‘browse mode.’ Learn more about the free edition.

While Analytica doesn’t run on macOS, it does work with Parallels or VMWare through Windows.


    Analytica Cubes Pattern

    Download the free edition of Analytica

    The free version of Analytica lets you create and edit models with up to 101 variables, which is pretty substantial since each variable can be a multidimensional array. It also lets you run larger modes in ‘browse mode.’ Learn more about the free edition.

    While Analytica doesn’t run on macOS, it does work with Parallels or VMWare through Windows.


      Analytica Cubes Pattern