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Pi Day comparison: Monte Carlo vs Latin hypercube vs Sobol sampling

This blog will be visiting the dart-throwing method of estimating Ď€ and comparing how fast or slow different sampling techniques converge to the actual value of Ď€. The sampling techniques…

The deadly pillow fallacy

On the surface it seems absurd that a pillow could cause all that death and disease. But, you should be careful not to let your preconceived beliefs taint your analysis of the data.

Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection

As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be mandatory or voluntary.

Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked

In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 follows a triangle shape over time when plotted with...

Adjusting the Santa Clara County COVID-19 Antibody testing study results for self-selection bias

The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, yet it remains largely a mystery because we don’t...

The Suppression Triangle for COVID-19: How soon can we end the lockdown?

The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases and deaths – what some people call “J-curves”...

A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works

On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington published their first COVID-19 forecast [IMHE20a]...

Suppression strategy and updated forecast for US deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020

Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a probabilistic forecast for the number of people in the US who will ...

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