Best Risk Analysis Software: 2026 Comparison

Risk analysis software puts numbers on risk: the probability and size of cost overruns, delays, failures, and losses, and the contingency or mitigation spending that each one warrants. This comparison covers quantitative risk analysis tools, which differ from governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) platforms that manage risk registers and controls. The quantitative tools fall into three classes: model-based platforms such as Analytica and GoldSim, spreadsheet add-ins such as @RISK, Analytic Solver, and ModelRisk, and project schedule and cost tools such as Safran Risk, Deltek Acumen Risk, RiskyProject, and Full Monte.

A register of high, medium, and low scores cannot say how likely a project is to finish within budget, and it cannot say how much expected loss a mitigation project removes. Quantitative risk analysis replaces those scores with probability distributions, so a team can state a confidence level and size contingency or mitigation spending against it. The method treats risk and uncertainty as modeled quantities rather than labels, and the line between qualitative and quantitative analysis runs through the rest of this comparison.

This comparison targets power and utility risk, capital planning, and asset management teams primarily. It also serves project controls, finance, engineering, environment, and health analysts, and it helps readers identify the best risk analysis software for a specific job, judged on method, schedule integration, and price. It reviews nine products across three classes, plus two legacy tools named for context.

This review checks every feature and price against public vendor pages in the review month, and every figure is a starting point for a vendor quote rather than a final cost.

Risk analysis software compared: features and pricing

The comparison splits into two tables, one for modeling capability and one for free-tier terms and price, since the two follow different verification cycles.

Feature matrix

The table below lists each product’s maker, type, and platform alongside six capability columns, with a check mark where current vendor documentation confirms the capability. Free-tier terms appear in the pricing table that follows.

The columns marked not documented reflect current public documentation as of October 2026 rather than a confirmed absence, and ModelRisk’s decision tree, risk register, and schedule functions sit in separate Vose products.

Editions and pricing

The second table covers free versions and current pricing for the same nine products.

Prices reflect public vendor pages and third-party software directories as of October 2026. Where a vendor page and a directory differ, the table shows both, and Analytica’s editions follow the current pricing page.

How these tools were evaluated

This review assessed each product against five criteria drawn from its own public documentation rather than from marketing claims: the job the tool does, probabilistic capability, decision support, schedule integration with Primavera P6 and Microsoft Project, and pricing as the vendor publishes or lists it. Probabilistic capability means Monte Carlo simulation, correlation handling, and rare-event sampling, while decision support means decision trees and value of information. Where current vendor documentation did not confirm a capability, this article states that current documentation does not confirm the capability rather than asserting its absence, so each limitation rests on public documentation that a vendor can check.

Selection guide: matching the tool to the risk problem

The right tool depends on which job you need done, and the table below matches seven common situations to the risk analysis tools that fit them.

Whichever row fits, the same logic carries through this article: a spreadsheet add-in suits a team that already works in Excel, a project tool suits a team that already works in a schedule, and a model-based platform suits a team that needs the risk model itself to be transparent and reusable.

Core capabilities in risk analysis software

The subsections below define the vocabulary this article uses, independent of any single vendor’s terminology.

Qualitative versus quantitative risk analysis

Qualitative risk analysis ranks risks with descriptive scores such as high, medium, and low, while quantitative risk analysis estimates probability and impact as numbers and distributions. Quantitative risk assessment answers questions that a score cannot, such as the chance that a project exceeds its budget. Most teams screen qualitatively first and quantify the risks that matter most.

Risk registers and probability-impact scoring

A risk register lists each identified risk with an owner, a probability score, an impact score, and a planned response. The scoring multiplies two coarse ratings, so very different risks can share a rank, and the scores cannot add up across a portfolio. Registers organize the work well, but they do not produce the distribution of outcomes that a confidence level requires.

Estimating uncertainty versus modeling discrete risk events

Estimating uncertainty places a range or distribution on a quantity already in the plan, such as a unit cost or an activity duration. Modeling a discrete risk event adds something that may or may not happen, such as an outage or a permit denial, with its own probability and consequence. Most project and utility models need both.

Monte Carlo simulation for risk

Monte Carlo simulation estimates the distribution of an outcome by recalculating a model thousands of times with inputs drawn from their probability distributions. Monte Carlo risk analysis turns those runs into the probability of exceeding a budget, missing a date, or passing a loss threshold. The comparison of Monte Carlo simulation software reviews sampling methods in depth, and Analytica’s Monte Carlo simulation page explains the method itself.

Correlation and dependent risks

Correlation measures how strongly two uncertain inputs move together, and dependent risks change their outcomes when another risk occurs. Ignoring either narrows the simulated range, because independent draws let high and low values cancel each other out. Fuel cost and power price, or two pipeline segments exposed to the same weather, show the effect clearly.

P50, P80, and P90 confidence levels and contingency

P50, P80, and P90 are percentiles of a simulated outcome: a P80 cost is the amount that the simulation does not exceed in 80 percent of runs. Contingency equals the gap between the base estimate and the chosen percentile, so a P80 budget carries more contingency than a P50 budget. GAO’s cost estimating guide explains that a point estimate carries no stated level of confidence until a quantitative risk and uncertainty analysis attaches a range to it. Analytica, for example, accepts P10, P50, and P90 estimates directly, and cost risk analysis applies the same percentile logic to a whole project budget.

Schedule risk analysis and criticality on the critical path

Schedule risk analysis simulates a project plan with uncertain activity durations to estimate the probability of finishing by a given date. The criticality index reports how often each activity lands on the critical path across the runs, which can differ from the single critical path in the base plan.

Decision trees and expected value

A decision tree maps sequential choices and uncertain outcomes, and expected value weights each outcome by its probability to compare the choices. Trees suit discrete decisions, such as funding an inspection before a repair, and the comparison of decision analysis software covers the tools that specialize in them.

Value of information

Value of information measures how much a decision improves, on average, if the decision maker learns an uncertain quantity before choosing. The expected value of perfect information sets an upper bound on what any study or measurement could be worth, which helps a team rank the uncertainties worth reducing.

Sensitivity and tornado charts

A tornado chart ranks uncertain inputs by how much each one moves an output, with the widest bar at the top. It shows which assumptions deserve better data before anyone acts on the result, and the review of sensitivity analysis software covers one-way, two-way, and global methods.

Tail risk and rare catastrophic events

Tail risk is the chance of a rare, high-consequence outcome, such as a pipeline rupture or a wildfire ignition, that plain random sampling seldom produces. Importance sampling oversamples the extreme region of an input and reweights the results to remove the bias, which gives a stable estimate of a small probability from far fewer runs.

Risk-spend efficiency

Risk-spend efficiency, or RSE, divides the risk reduction that a mitigation project delivers by its cost, so a utility can rank projects by risk removed per dollar. California regulators introduced the metric in an earlier safety model assessment proceeding, and current risk assessment filings report benefit-cost ratios instead. Analytica’s webinar on how California utilities use risk-spend efficiency explains the framework.

Model-based quantitative risk platforms

The two products in this class are risk modeling software that represents how risks drive outcomes, rather than software that adds probability to a finished spreadsheet or a project plan. Both serve as probabilistic risk assessment software, carrying uncertainty through a full model across assets, scenarios, or time periods.

Analytica

Lumina Decision Systems develops Analytica, a decision modeling platform built around influence diagrams, in which each variable, risk event, and decision appears as a node that a reviewer can trace. Every quantity can carry a probability distribution, so Monte Carlo simulation propagates uncertainty from inputs to outputs without an add-in. Intelligent Arrays carry dimensions such as asset, region, scenario, and time through one model, which lets an analyst quantify risk across a portfolio that a single spreadsheet struggles to hold.

Analytica documents Latin hypercube sampling, Sobol sampling, importance sampling, and expected value of information analysis, and the Analytica Cloud Platform publishes a finished model to stakeholders as a web interface. It is not a risk register or a project schedule tool, so it suits quantitative models of how risks drive outcomes rather than compliance tracking or plan-based schedule risk.

Best for: analysts who need a transparent quantitative model of risk across assets, regions, and time, including rare events and the value of reducing uncertainty.

Key strengths:

• Influence diagrams show how each risk and decision connects to the outcome, which supports regulator and board review
• Intelligent Arrays hold risk across assets, regions, scenarios, and time periods in one model
• Monte Carlo simulation runs natively, with Median and Random Latin hypercube sampling and Sobol sampling
• Importance sampling targets rare events, and value of information analysis ranks the uncertainties worth reducing
• A permanently free edition supports models up to 101 objects

Limitations:

• Does not include a risk register or governance workflow
• Current documentation does not confirm Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project schedule import as of October 2026
• Requires learning an influence diagram approach, a switching cost for teams that work only in Excel
• The free edition caps a model at 101 objects, so larger models need a paid edition

Price: Free edition at $0 with up to 101 objects and no time limit. Analytica pricing lists Professional at $1,000 per year, Developer at $2,000, and Optimizer at $4,000, as of October 2026, per vendor website; Analytica Cloud Platform group plans start at $2,000 per year.

Verdict: Analytica fits teams that need a transparent, model-based quantification of risk across many assets, regions, or time periods, including rare events and mitigation ranking. Teams whose main need is schedule risk analysis on a P6 or MS Project plan, or a risk register, should look to the project tools and GRC platforms covered below.

Website: analytica.com

GoldSim

GoldSim Technology Group develops GoldSim, a dynamic simulation platform that runs inside a Monte Carlo framework, so every run samples the uncertain inputs and then evolves the system through time. It layers discrete events such as accidents and failures onto continuously varying quantities, which suits probabilistic risk assessment of engineered and environmental systems. Datacor acquired the company in March 2026.

Importance sampling applies to events as well as parameters, so a modeler can raise the rate of rare failures artificially and correct the results afterward. The comparison of system dynamics software reviews the same product from a stock-and-flow perspective.

Best for: engineering and environmental risk teams that need failure events, rare-event sampling, and time-evolving behavior inside one probabilistic simulation.

Key strengths:

• Monte Carlo sampling runs inside the dynamic engine, so every run reflects system behavior through time
• Discrete events model accidents and failures layered onto continuous processes
• Importance sampling applies to events as well as parameters
• Reliability elements in the paid RL Professional module model function and action failures
• The free GoldSim Player runs existing models, and a free Academic license supports teaching

Limitations:

• Current documentation does not confirm Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project schedule import as of October 2026
• Current documentation does not confirm tornado-chart output by name, decision trees, or value of information as labeled features
• Windows-only desktop modeling environment, with no risk register

Price: Desktop license at $5,600 including one year of maintenance, one-year lease at $2,750, and academic researcher lease at $1,050 per year, as of October 2026, per the vendor price list effective January 2025; confirm current terms following the March 2026 Datacor acquisition. GoldSim Player and the Academic license are free.

Verdict: GoldSim fits engineering and environmental teams that need time-evolving behavior, failure events, and rare-event sampling inside one simulation. Teams that need a board-readable influence diagram, value of information analysis, or schedule risk on a project plan should weigh Analytica or the project tools instead.

Website: goldsim.com

Spreadsheet risk add-ins

The three products in this class add probability to an Excel model that already exists, which makes them Monte Carlo risk analysis software for teams that do not want to rebuild a model. This site’s comparison of Monte Carlo simulation software covers sampling methods and the wider add-in field in more depth, so the profiles below stay short.

@RISK

Lumivero, formerly Palisade, develops @RISK, an Excel add-in that adds Monte Carlo simulation to an existing workbook, with more than 90 distributions, correlations including copulas, and tornado charts. A Schedule Risk Analysis feature imports Microsoft Project and Primavera P6 files and reports critical indices. Lumivero bundles @RISK with PrecisionTree and other tools in DecisionTools Suite.

Best for: teams that already model in Excel and need probability, correlation, and schedule risk added to the same workbook.

Key strengths:

• More than 90 distributions, with correlation and copula options
• Tornado charts, scatter plots, and scenario analysis show which inputs drive the result
• Schedule Risk Analysis imports Microsoft Project and Primavera P6 files and reports critical indices
• PrecisionTree in DecisionTools Suite adds decision trees
• A familiar Excel interface limits retraining

Limitations:

• Runs on Windows only, inside desktop Excel
• Proprietary functions reduce portability outside Excel and Lumivero’s own tools
• Current documentation does not confirm which edition includes Schedule Risk Analysis as of October 2026
• Current documentation does not confirm a risk register link as of October 2026

Price: From approximately $2,225 per user per year for the Professional edition, as of October 2026, per third-party directories; Lumivero publishes no price on its product page. A free trial is available.

Verdict: @RISK fits Excel-based teams that want simulation, correlation, and schedule import in one add-in. Teams that must share models outside Excel, or model risk across many dimensions, should compare Analytica or ModelRisk.

Website: lumivero.com

Analytic Solver

Frontline Systems, which built the Solver that ships inside Excel, develops Analytic Solver, an Excel add-in that combines Monte Carlo simulation, multi-stage decision trees, and optimization. Users define correlations alongside distributions, simulate over a tree, and run sensitivity analysis that shows how the best decision changes as probabilities and payoffs change. Licenses cover Excel on Windows, Mac, and Excel for the web, one platform at a time.

Best for: teams that want simulation and decision trees in one Excel add-in, particularly when a browser-accessible option matters.

Key strengths:

• Monte Carlo simulation with correlation support inside Excel
• Multi-stage decision trees that simulation can run over
• Sensitivity analysis shows how the best decision changes as probabilities and payoffs change
• Optimization in the same package supports budget-constrained selection problems
• A 15-day full-function trial supports evaluation before purchase

Limitations:

• Current documentation does not confirm Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project schedule import as of October 2026
• Current documentation does not confirm value of information analysis as a labeled feature
• Current documentation does not confirm a risk register link as of October 2026

Price: From approximately $250 per year, as of October 2026, per third-party directories; Frontline’s price page lists Analytic Solver Pro at $3,120 for a one-year license, so buyers should confirm the current tier. A 15-day free trial is available.

Verdict: Analytic Solver fits teams that need decision trees and simulation together in Excel, with optimization available when a selection problem appears. Teams focused on schedule risk should look to the project tools below.

Website: solver.com

ModelRisk

Vose Software develops ModelRisk, an Excel add-in for Monte Carlo simulation aimed at professional risk analysts. It offers 136 distributions, 14 copulas for dependence between inputs, 34 time-series models, and nine chart types including tornado and spider plots. Vose sells decision tree, risk register, and schedule risk functions as separate products named ModelChoice, Pelican, and Tamara.

Best for: analysts who need detailed dependence and time-series modeling in Excel, such as correlated fuel and market price risk.

Key strengths:

• 136 distributions cover a wide range of input shapes
• 14 copulas model dependence beyond simple correlation
• 34 time-series models fit price and demand series
• Nine chart types include tornado, spider, and scatter plots
• A free Basic edition remains available after the 15-day trial

Limitations:

• Decision trees, risk registers, and schedule risk sit in separate Vose products rather than in ModelRisk itself
• The free Basic edition offers reduced features after the trial ends
• Runs on Windows only, inside Excel

Price: Up to €1,550 per user per year, as of October 2026, per vendor website, with volume and multi-year discounts. A 15-day trial precedes a free Basic edition with reduced features.

Verdict: ModelRisk fits analysts who need advanced dependence and time-series modeling in Excel. Teams that need schedule risk or decision trees within one product should look elsewhere in this article.

Website: vosesoftware.com

Oracle Crystal Ball, one of the earliest Monte Carlo add-ins for Excel, still appears in older workbooks. Third-party software trackers list it as not offered for new sales as of 2026, a status this article could not confirm directly with Oracle, so buyers who start a new analysis should confirm availability before comparing it with the products above.

Project cost and schedule risk analysis software

Project risk analysis software runs Monte Carlo simulation directly on a project plan, so uncertain activity durations and costs produce a probability of finishing on time and within budget. The four tools below cover schedule risk analysis and, in most cases, cost risk analysis on plans built in Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project, and they differ mainly in how they exchange data with the plan.

Safran Risk

Safran Software Solutions, which third-party directories place in Oslo, develops Safran Risk, a project risk analysis tool that combines schedule and cost risk analysis on one platform. It runs Monte Carlo simulations, reports tornado charts and criticality indices, and supports correlation and structured risk registers. The reseller Proadvise lists interoperability with Oracle Primavera P6, Microsoft Project, and Safran Project, and offers delivery as software as a service.

Best for: capital project teams that need integrated cost and schedule risk analysis with a risk register on Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project plans.

Key strengths:

• Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis on one platform
• Tornado charts and criticality indices report the drivers of delay and cost exposure
• Correlation between modeled inputs
• Structured risk registers that link to the simulation
• Reseller documentation lists interoperability with Primavera P6 and Microsoft Project

Limitations:

• Current documentation does not confirm decision trees or value of information as of October 2026
• Safran Software Solutions does not publicly disclose pricing
• Current documentation does not confirm direct desktop deployment as of October 2026

Price: Not publicly disclosed, quote-based, as of October 2026; third-party directories list a free trial.

Verdict: Safran Risk fits project controls teams that need integrated cost and schedule risk with a register. Buyers should confirm pricing, deployment, and trial terms with the vendor or a reseller before committing.

Website: Not confirmed at the time of writing; readers should search for the vendor’s current site directly.

Deltek Acumen Risk

Deltek develops Acumen Risk, a project risk module that runs Monte Carlo simulation combining cost and schedule uncertainty in one run. The simulation reports confidence levels and the probability of meeting milestones, and probabilistic critical path reports identify the drivers of delay and cost exposure. An automated risk register scores, prioritizes, and maps risks to activities, and risk-adjusted schedules export to Deltek Open Plan, Oracle Primavera P6, and Microsoft Project.

Best for: teams that need combined cost and schedule simulation with an automated risk register on Primavera P6, Microsoft Project, or Open Plan schedules.

Key strengths:

• Combined cost and schedule simulation in one run
• Confidence levels and the probability of meeting milestones
• Probabilistic critical path reports and sensitivity analyses identify delay and cost drivers
• An automated risk register links risks to schedule activities
• Risk-adjusted schedules export to Primavera P6, Microsoft Project, and Open Plan

Limitations:

• Deltek does not publicly disclose pricing, and its product page offers a demo request
• Current documentation does not confirm a free trial or deployment model as of October 2026
• Current documentation does not confirm correlation modeling, decision trees, or value of information as of October 2026

Price: Not publicly disclosed, quote-based, as of October 2026; the vendor page offers a demo request.

Verdict: Acumen Risk fits project controls teams that want cost and schedule risk plus a register in one Deltek environment. Teams that need published pricing or a self-serve trial should confirm availability with Deltek first.

Website: deltek.com

RiskyProject

Intaver Institute develops RiskyProject, project risk management software that performs Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis and integrated cost and schedule risk analysis. It supports correlations between task durations, costs, and risk events, tracks threats, opportunities, and issues in a risk register, and integrates with Microsoft Project and Oracle Primavera. RiskyProject runs as a standalone desktop application or as a Microsoft Project add-in.

Best for: project teams that want schedule and cost risk analysis with a register at a published per-seat price.

Key strengths:

• Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis in all editions
• Correlations between task durations, costs, and risk events
• A risk register tracks threats, opportunities, and issues with probabilities and impacts
• A Microsoft Project add-in and Primavera integration
• Probabilistic branching in the Professional and Enterprise editions

Limitations:

• Current documentation does not name tornado charts as of October 2026
• The Enterprise edition requires at least five Professional or Lite licenses plus an Enterprise Server, and Intaver prices it on request
• Current documentation does not confirm decision trees or value of information as of October 2026

Price: Lite $685 per year and Professional $979 per year, as of October 2026, per vendor website; Enterprise priced on request. A 30-day trial is available.

Verdict: RiskyProject fits project teams that want integrated schedule and cost risk with a published per-seat price. Larger programs that need server-based governance should confirm Enterprise terms, which require a quote.

Website: intaver.com

Full Monte

Barbecana develops Full Monte, a schedule risk analysis tool that runs quantitative risk analysis directly within Microsoft Project or Primavera P6 schedules, with no import or export step. Results publish back into the source schedule, which keeps the analysis next to the plan that the project team already maintains. Third-party reviews describe Monte Carlo schedule analysis with correlation between tasks and external events.

Best for: schedulers who prefer to run risk analysis inside the schedule that they already maintain in Microsoft Project or Primavera P6.

Key strengths:

• Runs inside Microsoft Project or Primavera P6, so no import or export step interrupts the workflow
• Results publish into the source schedule
• Third-party reviews describe Monte Carlo schedule analysis
• Third-party reviews describe correlation between tasks and external events
• A free trial supports evaluation

Limitations:

• Current documentation does not confirm cost risk analysis, a risk register, or sensitivity reporting as of October 2026
• Runs only within Microsoft Project or Primavera P6, with no standalone modeling environment
• Barbecana does not publish pricing on its product page

Price: From approximately $1,195 per Capterra listing, as of October 2026; the vendor lists no price. A free trial is available.

Verdict: Full Monte fits schedulers who want risk analysis inside the plan they already use. Teams that need a risk register, cost risk, or model-based risk outside the schedule should look to the other classes.

Website: barbecana.com

Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis, which older programs still use, belongs to the same class. Current documentation does not confirm whether Oracle still develops it as of October 2026, so buyers who evaluate new tools should confirm its status with Oracle.

Adjacent categories worth knowing

Three related categories sit near risk analysis software without answering quite the same question. Governance, risk, and compliance platforms such as Archer, LogicManager, Riskonnect, and Resolver manage registers, controls, audits, and compliance workflows rather than probability models. Most searches for risk management software, GRC software, risk assessment software, and risk register software lead to these platforms, and a team can pair a register platform with one of the quantitative tools above.

Engineering quantitative risk and reliability tools form the second category, and they are domain-specific. DNV’s Phast models the consequences of process releases, and Isograph’s Reliability Workbench supports fault tree analysis, so each answers a narrower engineering question than the products in this article. Cyber risk quantification software built on the FAIR model forms the third category, and FAIR risk quantification covers one risk domain rather than general project, asset, or financial risk.

Risk analysis in the power and utility sector

Six recurring problems in energy and power call for quantitative risk analysis rather than a register alone, since each involves uncertain inputs, severe consequences, or both.

In California, CPUC’s risk-based decision-making framework governs how large electric and gas utilities assess and disclose risk in their risk assessment and mitigation phase filings. A later phase of that proceeding replaced the cost-benefit ratio with a benefit-cost ratio, so current filings report benefit-cost ratios rather than risk-spend efficiency, the earlier metric from the safety model assessment framework. The ANAGRAM gas pipeline risk model, a web-based tool that Lumina and the SIPmath Group built for a large gas utility, ranks pipeline mitigation projects by that earlier metric.

The same methods apply outside utilities, where the specific uncertainty changes but the structure of the problem stays the same.

• Finance: credit, market, and portfolio loss distributions with correlated drivers
• Healthcare and pharma: clinical trial outcomes, development cost, and portfolio value under uncertainty
• Environment and climate: exposure, hazard, and adaptation cost estimates with wide uncertainty ranges
• Transportation: infrastructure project cost, demand, and delay risk

Across all ten situations, the same test applies: quantitative risk analysis software earns its place wherever a decision has to state how likely, how large, and how much contingency or mitigation the outcome warrants.

Is this comparison objective?

A team that includes staff of Lumina Decision Systems, the maker of Analytica, researched and wrote this comparison, and readers should weigh that affiliation against the following safeguards.

• This article reviews Analytica as one of nine products, in its natural class alongside GoldSim, rather than presenting it separately
• This article checked every competitor limitation against public vendor documentation before inclusion
• This article includes no limitation that a vendor could reasonably dispute as factually inaccurate
• Readers who find an inaccuracy in any review, including the Analytica review, can contact Lumina Decision Systems through the official contact page at lumina.com

These safeguards narrow the risk of bias but do not remove the underlying affiliation, so readers evaluating a purchase should weigh this article alongside independent sources as well.

Frequently asked questions

What is risk analysis software?

Risk analysis software estimates the probability and size of cost overruns, delays, failures, and losses numerically, so a team can decide how much contingency or mitigation spending each one warrants. Some vendors market the same category as risk quantification software. The best fit depends on the job: a model-based platform builds a quantitative model of how risks drive outcomes, a spreadsheet add-in adds probability to an existing Excel model, and a project tool runs cost and schedule risk on a plan.

Qualitative vs quantitative risk analysis: what is the difference?

Qualitative risk analysis ranks risks with descriptive scores such as high, medium, and low, while quantitative risk analysis estimates probability and impact numerically and produces a distribution of outcomes. Quantitative risk assessment can state a confidence level, such as the cost a project stays under in 80 percent of simulated runs, which a score cannot. Most organizations screen qualitatively first and then quantify the risks that matter most.

Is risk management software the same as risk analysis software?

No. Risk management software, including GRC platforms and risk register tools, tracks risks, owners, controls, and compliance tasks, while risk analysis software builds probability models of outcomes. Top risk management tool lists usually name registers and GRC platforms, while short risk analysis lists name a model-based platform, a spreadsheet add-in, and a project schedule tool. A team can use both, with the register supplying the risks that the analysis tool quantifies.

Can Excel do quantitative risk analysis on its own?

Excel can sample random inputs with formulas, but it lacks a managed distribution library, correlation, repeated recalculation, or percentile reporting without manual work. Spreadsheet add-ins supply those features inside the workbook. Models that span many assets, regions, or time periods can outgrow a workbook, which is when a model-based platform becomes relevant.

What do P50, P80, and P90 mean, and how do they set contingency?

P50, P80, and P90 are percentiles of a simulated outcome, so a P80 cost is the amount that the simulation does not exceed in 80 percent of runs. Contingency equals the gap between the base estimate and the chosen percentile, which means a P80 budget carries more contingency than a P50 budget. Project teams choose the percentile according to how much overrun risk the organization accepts.

Which tools do project schedule risk analysis with Primavera P6 or MS Project?

Safran Risk, Deltek Acumen Risk, RiskyProject, and Full Monte support Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project, and @RISK imports Microsoft Project and Primavera P6 schedule files into Excel. Full Monte runs inside the schedule itself, while the other tools exchange data with it. Current documentation does not confirm Analytica’s P6 or MS Project import as of October 2026.

What is the best free risk analysis software?

No single free tool covers every job, so the choice depends on the size and type of the model. Analytica offers a free edition of Analytica with no time limit and up to 101 objects, GoldSim Player runs existing GoldSim models at no cost, and ModelRisk reverts to a free Basic edition with reduced features after its 15-day trial. @RISK, Analytic Solver, RiskyProject, and Full Monte offer free trials, and open-source Python and R libraries can run Monte Carlo simulation but provide code rather than an auditable model interface.

How do you model rare, high-consequence events?

Rare events call for importance sampling, which oversamples the extreme region of an input and reweights the results, because plain Monte Carlo seldom produces a one-in-a-thousand outcome. Analytica and GoldSim both document importance sampling, and GoldSim applies it to events such as failures as well as to parameters. Analytica’s Monte Carlo simulation page describes the weighting approach in more detail.

Which risk analysis tools are used in the power and utility sector?

The ANAGRAM gas pipeline risk model, a web-based tool that Lumina and the SIPmath Group built for a large gas utility, documents risk-spend efficiency ranking of pipeline mitigation projects. GoldSim documents use in environmental and engineering risk assessment, and the project tools address cost and schedule risk on generation and transmission builds. ModelRisk’s time-series models and copulas fit fuel and market price risk by capability, although current documentation does not tie ModelRisk to a named utility case.

Max Henrion

Founder and CEO, Lumina Decision Systems

Max Henrion originated Analytica and has led decision-support work across energy, environment, healthcare, and aerospace. He holds a PhD from Carnegie Mellon University, a Master of Design from the Royal College of Art, and a degree in Natural Sciences from Cambridge University, and is an Adjunct Professor at Carnegie Mellon’s Department of Engineering and Public Policy. He received the 2018 Frank Ramsey Medal from the Decision Analysis Society for lifetime contributions to the field.