In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 follows a triangle shape over time when plotted with…
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, yet it remains largely a mystery because we don’t…
On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington published their first COVID-19 forecast [IMHE20a]…
Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a probabilistic forecast for the number of people in the US who will …
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation measures for mitigation and suppression…
In this posting, I am taking on the morbid challenge of forecasting how many people in the US will die from the COVID-19 coronavirus in the year 2020.
It has only been about a month since the new strain of a coronavirus appeared in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Yet it seems that the rapid growth of confirmed cases…
In late December, Santa Claus will embark on his annual Christmas eve ritual, delivering presents to the good little boys and girls around the world. In this article, I look at the…
