The Deadly Pillow Fallacy
An exercise in critical thinking Today I start out with a challenge for you. Can you spot the logical errors …
Lonnie Chrisman, PhD, is Lumina's Chief Technical Officer, where he heads engineering and development of Analytica®. He has authored dozens refereed publications in the areas of machine learning, Artificial Intelligence planning, robotics, probabilistic inference, Bayesian networks, and computational biology. He was was in eighth grade when he had his first paid programming job. He was awarded the Alton B. Zerby award "Most outstanding Electrical Engineering Student in the USA", 1987. He has a PhD in Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University; and a BS in Electrical Engineering from University of California at Berkeley. Lonnie used Analytica for seismic structural analysis of an extension that he built to his own home where he lives with his wife and raised four daughters: So, he really trusts Analytica calculations!
An exercise in critical thinking Today I start out with a challenge for you. Can you spot the logical errors …
As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be …
Voluntary vs. mandatory testing for naval crew selection Read More »
(Posted on 23 Apr 2020) In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number …
Early COVID-19 decay rates for countries that have peaked Read More »
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, …
(Posted on 15-Apr-2020) On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington …
A critique of the HealthData.org COVID-19 model, and how it works Read More »
(Posted 23-Mar-2020) Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a …
On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation …
How social isolation impacts COVID-19 spread in the US: A Markov model approach Read More »
We all are uncertain about how the future will unfold. This is a primary reason why decision making in business, public policy and our personal lives is so hard. As the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold [W20], we are all confronted numerous new decisions that hinge a lot on how bad this is going to get. And these are hard, because the uncertainty and the stakes are so big.
It has only been about a month since the new strain of a coronavirus appeared in the city of Wuhan, …
In late December, Santa Claus will embark on his annual Christmas eve ritual, delivering presents to the good little boys …
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Expenditure from Santa’s global tour Read More »
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