The value of knowing what you don’t know
07/08/2024
Grasp how acknowledging uncertainties in models can boost decision-making and enhance model accuracy in this blog.
Rob Brown
Robert Brown, a strategic project management expert, combines creative thinking with quantitative analysis to assist clients across various industries. He leverages decision support tools and risk management training to empower decision-makers in making critical choices.
Author Posts
An interesting Christmas gift
01/08/2015
Over the holidays, the New York Times delivered an unusual juxtaposition of headlines and content, and apparent lack of self-awareness, to illicit such a hearty chuckle from…
Never tell me the odds?
03/07/2013
In my last post, I discussed the meaning of expected value (EV) and how it’s useful for comparing the values of choices we could make when the outcomes we face with each choice
A brief explanation of expected value
02/08/2013
When helping people analyze the risks they face in complex decisions, I frequently receive requests for an explanation of expected value, as expected value is a measure commonly …
Odd Couples: how ice skaters & fireflies tell us something about the language of the universe
12/03/2012
The universe has always possessed the language it needs to conduct its own affairs. I don’t think it could be otherwise. Because my daughter participates in competitive figure …
Fear and loathing in Las Vegas with Reverend Bayes
08/06/2012
A trip to Vegas, an evil clown, a bizarre coin, and a minister. “What could go wrong?” I commented in a footnote of an earlier post that one of my favorite – no,
Desperately diving for pearls of great price
07/02/2012
You would be shocked to learn how fast you can make it to the bottom of a lake with a cinder block tied to your leg. I know this rate, by my own
Ain’t I got a right to be wrong?
06/02/2012
I was a whiz kid in college. You know, the kind of kid my professors wanted to whiz on. The reason: I was quick to argue, often too quick. College presented a very
