Coming Soon! Decision Making When There Is Little Historic PrecedentLonnie focuses on how computers can help you improve decision making and strategic planning in novel situations. For example, you might evaluate a new initiative or proposed policy that has never been tried before. Or the future world may change as a result of emerging technologies, a pandemic, climate change, or new regulations. Without historic precedent, you cannot simply extrapolate from the past, thus limiting the effectiveness of BI, data analysis and machine learning tools. Decision makers often find it challenging to develop a core understanding of key issues, core objectives and options, complex tradeoffs, and incomplete information and uncertainty. Different stakeholders are prone to adopt advocacy positions, which then hampers communication and rationality. Lonnie leads the design and development of Analytica, a software tool designed to address these types of challenges and proven successful, through the promotion of transparent model-based decision making. He will discuss how its unique design promotes clarity and insight.
Green Accountability and Incentives: Reflecting the Social and Economic Cost of CO2 in New Capital Projects Using Analytica with Robert BrownRobert Brown is the Senior Strategic Analyst at Novelis Inc. the World leader in aluminum products, with significant market share in beverage can, automotive, aerospace, and specialties applications. Robert works on financial planning, risk analysis, and business case analysis. He is a decision science advisor, author, and experienced Analytica user. Novelis aims to become the leading provider of low-carbon, sustainable aluminum solutions, working to move the industry and society towards a circular economy. Robert and team need to justify the impact of their dollars spent across a range of objectives, including product performance and profitability. In this presentation you will see how Novelis prices the economic cost of CO2 emissions. You will see a broad range of Analytica capabilities including influence diagrams to outline the conceptual framework, dynamic simulation to develop a proxy price distribution to burden CO2 production, and Monte Carlo to test uncertain tradeoffs among strategic alternatives.
Proyectos y Creación de Valor (September 15, 2021)
Toda organización requiere siempre de nuevas destrezas, productos, servicios, un cambio en ellos, o en ella misma. Por todo ello, hoy los proyectos son parte de la vida cotidiana de los ejecutivos y organizaciones.
En este webinar veremos cómo insertar y tratar las incertidumbres que existen a futuro y plasmarlas en un Flujo de Caja no determinístico usando diferentes distribuciones de probabilidad para obtener el VPN Esperado y hacer un análisis probabilístico. Siendo que todo es a futuro, no puede ser determinista.
Applied Real Options Analysis for the Finance and Decision Professional (Aug 25, 2021)
Dan Zoppo, finance professional and expert Analytica user, gave a talk about the simple yet flexible and powerful Least Squares Monte Carlo method. This talk discussed what real options are, why we should be interested in them, and how to solve real options problems in practice. Also, Dan kindly shared his Analytica model and slides on his blog, Freehold Finance.
Real options represent managerial decisions and operational flexibilities that can contribute significant value to a business in response to market and operational uncertainties that unfold over time. While finance academics have long promoted real options analysis as superior to static discounted cash flow analysis it is only with the advent of modern computing and algorithms that real options can take their place in the finance and decision professional’s toolkit. This method is an approximate dynamic programming approach that has been used to value a diverse range of assets including natural resource investments, energy generation and storage assets, pharmaceutical R&D, and real estate.
Making jet fuel from the sun and wind: when will it be cost effective? (June 17, 2021)
Dr. Evan Sherwin, Stanford Postdoctoral Research Fellow, discusses his research (and Analytica model) to answer the question: when will it be cost effective to make jet fuel from sun and wind?
As the energy system moves toward variable renewable electricity, sectors such as aviation may require energy-dense low-carbon liquid fuels to dramatically reduce emissions. Electrofuels, synthesized from CO2 from direct air capture and hydrogen from electrolysis of water, powered primarily by solar or wind electricity, may present a cost-effective path forward. However, this approach will require operating capital-intensive equipment using variable renewable electricity. Dr. Sherwin employed an optimization-based techno-economic analysis, implemented in Analytica, to assess the prospects for large cost reductions, accounting for changes in optimal system operation as component technologies advance.
Modelos de Inversion y Medidas de Riesgo con el metodo Monte Carlo (May 27, 2021)
Dr. Jorge Muro Arbulu presentó sobre el uso del análisis de monte carlo usando Analytica.
Cuando invertimos en un activo, necesariamente hay incertidumbres a futuro, pero con el método Monte Carlo de Analytica podemos cuantificar las distintas métricas de riesgo de nuestra inversión: Probabilidad de pérdida, Volatilidad o Desviación Estándar, Valor en Riesgo o VaR, y Déficit Esperado (o Expected Shortfall) con 10 mil simulaciones (como requiere el acuerdo de Basilea 3) con facilidad.
Aquí construimos un modelo de inversión inmobiliaria y luego explicamos y extraemos las mencionadas métricas del riesgo inherentes a nuestra inversión.
The Value of Knowing How Little You Know: When to leave for the plane (April 22, 2021)
What time should you leave to catch a plane flight? We all know intuitively to leave extra time for traffic and other uncertainties. But, how much time? And what’s the value of considering uncertainty? Max Henrion gave a talk on April 22, 2021 where he introduced the Expected Value of Including Uncertainty (EVIU), compare with the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI), and the insights it gives into a variety of decision problems — including catching a plane. He’ll share the Analytica model.
Inteligencia Artificial en los Negocios (April 15, 2021)
Jorge Muro Arbulu, PhD. gave a wonderful talk titled Inteligencia Artificial como desarrollo de negocios in Spanish. A translation is Artificial Intelligence as business development. Inteligencia Artificial y aplicaciones en los negocios, con ejemplos desarrollados o a desarrollar en Operaciones, Proyectos, y Finanzas.