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Marginal vs. effective tax rates

Presidential candidate Mitt Romney released his tax returns, and the news channels were abuzz with commentary about his effective federal tax rate of 13.9% on $21.7M of income.

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Combination of assessed distributions

Suppose you need information about the future population Metropolitan City in the year 2020. So you solicit two experts to provide assessments of this quantity and provide their ...

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How a 1979 MG taught me to love risk analysis

At the tender age of 17 I sold my soul to a 1979 MG Midget. Or, at least I sold my body into indentured servitude to it.

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Do risk analysts dream of electron microscopes?

From as early as I can remember, I have always wanted to be a scientist. Indeed, while most kids my age were doing normal, healthy kid things on summer afternoons, like engaging ...

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Ain’t I got a right to be wrong?

I was a whiz kid in college. You know, the kind of kid my professors wanted to whiz on. The reason: I was quick to argue, often too quick. College presented a very competitive ...

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Desperately diving for pearls of great price

You would be shocked to learn how fast you can make it to the bottom of a lake with a cinder block tied to your leg. I know this rate, by my own empirical investigation, to be ...

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Fear and loathing in Las Vegas with Reverend Bayes

A trip to Vegas, an evil clown, a bizarre coin, and a minister. "What could go wrong?" I commented in a footnote of an earlier post that one of my favorite – no, morally obligated ...

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Odd Couples: how ice skaters & fireflies tell us something about the language of the universe

The universe has always possessed the language it needs to conduct its own affairs. I don’t think it could be otherwise. Because my daughter participates in competitive figure ...

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