Blogs

As COVID-19 testing becomes a routine part of doing business, some operations face the question of whether testing should be mandatory or voluntary.

In previous articles [C20a, H20], my colleague and I have written about how the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 follows a triangle shape over time when plotted with...

The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the most important parameters for mathematical models of the pandemic, yet it remains largely a mystery because we don’t...

The COVID-19 pandemic has given many people a crash course in the frightening implications of rapid exponential growth in cases and deaths – what some people call “J-curves”...

On 26-March-2020, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington published their first COVID-19 forecast [IMHE20a]...

Two weeks ago in the article “Estimating US Deaths from COVID-19 Coronavirus in 2020” [C20b], I developed a probabilistic forecast for the number of people in the US who will ...

On Monday of this week, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team released an influential report that forecasts how social isolation measures for mitigation and suppression...

In this posting, I am taking on the morbid challenge of forecasting how many people in the US will die from the COVID-19 coronavirus in the year 2020.